* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 78 76 66 59 51 43 35 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 78 76 66 59 51 43 35 30 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 79 78 76 69 60 53 48 44 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 3 1 2 5 5 4 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 303 345 333 333 289 242 141 171 258 262 297 259 278 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 135 129 118 115 117 118 123 125 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 66 65 62 58 55 51 50 49 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 18 18 18 15 15 13 12 10 9 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -27 -26 -23 -21 -4 5 17 27 24 16 17 200 MB DIV 47 47 15 -14 8 47 35 15 11 24 -9 -11 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 4 5 6 -1 0 -1 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 2299 2334 2295 2198 2102 1898 1677 1480 1283 1057 816 594 409 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.8 133.6 134.4 135.2 137.0 139.1 141.0 142.9 145.2 147.8 150.3 152.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 7 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -9. -16. -24. -32. -40. -45. -50. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##