* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 81 79 67 60 52 45 41 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 81 79 67 60 52 45 41 36 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 83 81 77 68 59 53 49 47 45 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 3 7 7 2 4 3 4 1 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -1 -1 2 1 2 2 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 351 1 332 249 194 282 26 310 305 348 143 273 286 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 135 130 124 116 115 118 123 126 128 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 67 67 63 59 54 52 51 48 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 17 17 14 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -31 -21 -19 -11 7 11 28 31 23 24 18 200 MB DIV 44 31 -11 -4 40 24 20 12 2 10 2 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 4 4 1 -2 -2 -1 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2326 2304 2209 2110 2012 1804 1602 1402 1202 989 774 592 462 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.2 16.9 16.4 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.5 134.3 135.2 136.0 137.9 139.8 141.8 143.9 146.2 148.6 151.1 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 3 6 5 0 0 0 0 7 1 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -6. -9. -11. -11. -14. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -13. -20. -28. -35. -39. -43. -48. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##