* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 79 75 66 58 50 45 41 36 33 29 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 79 75 66 58 50 45 41 36 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 79 76 71 62 54 49 46 45 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 4 6 7 6 2 2 5 1 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 301 299 258 204 250 287 260 174 204 108 184 257 263 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 129 124 119 115 116 121 126 128 129 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 67 65 61 60 55 52 53 49 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 11 11 10 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -39 -32 -33 -27 -11 3 7 16 21 17 17 16 200 MB DIV 12 -13 -6 33 40 13 4 9 23 8 13 -16 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 5 4 5 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2303 2207 2113 2012 1911 1708 1511 1318 1117 914 699 547 454 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.6 16.0 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.5 134.3 135.1 136.0 136.9 138.8 140.7 142.7 144.9 147.2 149.7 152.2 154.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 5 5 0 0 0 0 7 10 1 1 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -5. -14. -22. -30. -35. -39. -44. -47. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##