* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 26 26 26 24 23 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 26 26 26 24 23 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 4 4 3 1 3 5 8 11 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 302 271 237 243 323 43 275 209 215 217 234 244 246 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 131 130 129 128 129 129 129 129 130 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 57 58 57 56 55 54 52 48 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 11 4 -4 -23 -34 -14 5 7 8 7 9 200 MB DIV 21 47 60 59 63 33 2 -7 3 -6 -23 -22 -8 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1370 1280 1190 1099 1010 832 690 586 504 446 441 519 660 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.4 145.2 146.1 147.0 148.7 150.2 151.6 153.0 154.6 156.4 158.3 160.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 23 21 1 2 3 3 4 3 17 1 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##