* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 66 61 53 48 40 34 29 24 21 21 V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 66 61 53 48 40 34 29 24 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 65 61 53 47 44 42 39 37 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 7 9 11 0 4 7 10 5 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 297 274 230 243 280 44 232 257 278 263 269 280 273 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 121 117 115 115 118 123 126 129 131 132 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 65 66 65 58 53 52 51 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 10 9 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -23 -26 -17 -5 -1 6 12 19 10 10 8 9 200 MB DIV 0 8 24 22 14 37 29 -4 1 6 -22 -17 -10 700-850 TADV 4 4 6 4 4 2 0 -1 -4 0 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2183 2074 1965 1856 1746 1558 1358 1145 922 712 543 449 581 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.4 14.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.5 136.4 137.4 138.4 140.2 142.2 144.4 146.8 149.3 152.0 155.0 158.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 19 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -14. -22. -27. -35. -41. -46. -51. -54. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##