* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 11 14 14 16 15 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 233 242 254 289 324 258 247 231 246 252 260 248 258 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 129 128 126 127 127 128 127 130 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 54 57 58 57 58 55 53 53 51 51 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 24 11 -5 -28 -24 -7 -7 -5 -2 1 -4 200 MB DIV 50 74 79 60 47 29 -3 -9 -8 -10 -13 -15 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -3 0 -1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1245 1148 1051 952 854 678 551 467 389 345 393 521 701 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.5 146.4 147.3 148.2 149.7 151.0 152.2 153.7 155.4 157.4 159.4 161.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 1 2 2 2 4 4 15 13 1 9 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##