* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 64 60 53 43 36 29 24 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 64 60 53 43 36 29 24 21 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 69 64 60 52 46 41 38 35 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 6 3 6 4 8 7 10 6 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 2 4 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 247 249 270 278 214 276 230 246 243 273 292 263 280 SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 114 113 113 117 122 127 131 133 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 66 66 61 55 56 54 54 54 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 15 13 13 13 10 10 7 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -32 -17 -13 -7 -2 2 12 0 7 14 18 7 200 MB DIV 35 33 17 1 11 26 -5 -11 2 -13 -1 -11 -11 700-850 TADV 11 7 5 5 4 2 3 0 2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1986 1896 1807 1717 1627 1436 1216 975 724 556 567 734 951 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.2 16.6 16.1 15.5 14.8 13.8 13.1 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.0 137.8 138.7 139.5 141.4 143.7 146.3 149.4 152.6 155.9 158.9 161.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 15 17 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 2 1 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -32. -39. -46. -51. -54. -55. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##