* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 5 9 11 21 24 29 30 31 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 246 307 328 224 241 232 228 238 251 262 254 259 252 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 127 125 125 125 126 126 125 124 125 128 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 56 54 53 50 52 51 50 47 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 10 2 0 -2 0 5 3 0 2 -11 -22 200 MB DIV 50 31 13 9 5 -12 -38 -28 -9 6 -1 -3 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 2 -2 0 -2 3 4 5 3 LAND (KM) 1066 973 879 800 720 598 491 394 284 169 166 248 309 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.9 147.7 148.4 149.0 150.1 151.2 152.5 153.8 155.3 156.7 158.1 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 6 7 7 8 1 2 1 8 10 5 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##