* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 66 62 53 43 35 27 22 17 17 19 V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 66 62 53 43 35 27 22 17 17 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 69 65 61 55 50 45 40 37 34 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 3 4 6 7 9 11 9 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 1 3 -2 -5 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 230 270 227 160 185 203 214 234 253 280 257 287 281 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 114 115 116 120 126 129 133 134 135 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 65 62 57 52 51 50 51 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -18 -20 -4 0 0 11 6 6 16 19 14 3 200 MB DIV 24 17 3 13 26 14 -20 -32 -12 -16 16 10 11 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 1 1 4 -1 3 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1896 1811 1725 1632 1540 1322 1099 858 649 535 643 858 1104 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.2 16.8 16.2 15.6 15.0 14.3 13.4 12.9 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.8 138.6 139.5 140.4 142.6 145.0 147.8 150.9 154.1 157.5 160.7 163.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 15 1 6 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -13. -22. -32. -40. -48. -53. -58. -58. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##