* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 81 76 70 57 46 35 28 22 18 17 17 V (KT) LAND 85 85 81 76 70 57 46 35 28 22 18 17 17 V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 81 76 71 63 55 49 44 39 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 7 8 6 4 8 8 12 8 8 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 7 137 145 181 207 232 248 230 247 241 253 265 267 SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 116 117 124 128 130 133 133 135 136 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 64 60 53 52 49 49 49 49 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -4 0 -2 5 20 6 17 21 26 14 13 200 MB DIV 23 7 11 22 25 -13 -20 -11 -16 -4 -6 -9 -8 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 4 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1800 1711 1623 1526 1430 1216 989 755 566 511 680 918 1171 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.3 15.8 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.5 13.0 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.8 139.6 140.6 141.5 143.8 146.3 149.2 152.3 155.4 158.6 161.7 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 15 15 15 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 4 1 1 20 16 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -9. -15. -28. -39. -50. -57. -63. -67. -68. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##