* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 79 72 66 54 45 37 31 29 29 28 29 V (KT) LAND 90 86 79 72 66 54 45 37 31 29 29 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 84 79 74 66 59 53 48 44 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 4 4 7 8 12 8 7 3 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 -1 -5 -1 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 143 173 200 236 237 259 244 235 241 233 237 245 268 SST (C) 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 119 122 125 129 132 134 133 136 137 140 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 52 50 50 48 48 46 46 48 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 1 1 0 5 16 10 14 19 26 14 15 10 200 MB DIV 16 25 19 4 -4 -32 -26 -45 -4 -11 15 36 12 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 3 1 0 1 0 1 -1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1594 1496 1400 1295 1193 972 767 612 566 705 936 1172 1359 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.4 14.7 14.2 13.8 13.2 12.7 12.4 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.9 141.9 143.0 144.1 146.7 149.6 152.6 155.5 158.5 161.6 164.5 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 14 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 8 19 3 2 23 21 25 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -24. -36. -45. -53. -59. -61. -61. -62. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##