* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 55 47 40 36 28 22 18 17 19 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 65 55 47 40 36 28 22 18 17 19 20 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 65 56 50 46 42 38 34 31 28 26 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 7 7 9 13 14 12 8 6 5 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 161 169 192 209 206 233 248 259 259 275 205 252 252 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 124 127 129 131 134 134 135 136 138 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 60 56 50 48 47 46 47 45 45 44 46 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 0 5 12 9 5 13 21 23 13 10 0 200 MB DIV 21 19 17 -4 -35 -44 -36 -32 -13 3 21 5 10 700-850 TADV 8 6 3 2 0 3 -3 1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1513 1404 1297 1189 1086 858 677 570 630 832 1078 1260 1488 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.7 15.4 14.9 14.4 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.8 142.0 143.1 144.3 145.5 148.3 151.3 154.4 157.4 160.7 164.0 167.2 170.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 12 9 11 1 2 10 19 20 35 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -29. -37. -43. -47. -48. -46. -45. -43. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##