* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 45 40 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 45 40 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 51 45 42 39 35 32 29 27 25 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 11 13 9 9 7 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 -4 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 170 192 192 208 217 238 249 251 246 271 235 236 230 SST (C) 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 125 129 131 132 136 136 136 136 137 140 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 50 49 49 49 47 47 46 45 45 45 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -4 6 10 3 8 14 20 14 12 1 5 200 MB DIV 14 24 0 -21 -26 -40 -32 -21 -8 12 16 2 -4 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 0 -2 0 -1 2 -1 2 2 4 5 LAND (KM) 1426 1324 1226 1119 1021 851 680 634 771 985 1194 1352 1481 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.9 14.4 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 143.0 144.1 145.5 146.8 149.7 152.8 156.0 159.4 162.5 165.7 168.4 170.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 6 7 1 4 5 5 5 24 21 28 53 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -24. -32. -39. -44. -45. -46. -47. -46. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##