* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 46 42 37 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 46 42 37 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 49 47 45 42 39 35 33 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 13 14 14 9 11 10 8 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 194 208 204 214 230 249 253 238 266 270 264 232 245 SST (C) 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 130 131 132 134 136 135 137 137 140 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 47 46 46 45 45 45 47 47 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 8 9 6 8 16 22 17 18 13 8 9 200 MB DIV 23 2 -13 -26 -36 -38 -25 -33 -6 14 -2 2 -18 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 1 -3 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1289 1190 1098 992 899 727 615 706 948 1182 1400 1614 1771 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.5 14.1 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.5 145.7 147.1 148.5 151.6 154.9 158.3 162.0 165.3 168.6 171.5 173.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 18 17 16 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 2 3 3 6 3 22 22 26 60 49 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##