* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 44 37 31 26 24 24 23 24 26 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 44 37 31 26 24 24 23 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 49 47 44 40 38 35 34 34 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 13 14 15 11 13 11 7 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 228 222 236 244 257 257 250 255 282 264 251 234 224 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 134 135 136 136 136 140 142 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 45 44 43 42 44 45 45 46 45 45 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 7 6 3 13 23 27 23 22 11 12 12 200 MB DIV 1 -21 -26 -27 -32 -35 -11 -24 0 13 -2 -12 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 0 2 -1 3 1 1 2 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1177 1069 971 868 785 648 644 827 1111 1315 1566 1786 1950 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 14.9 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 146.0 147.3 148.8 150.3 153.3 156.7 160.2 163.8 167.1 170.5 173.3 175.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 1 3 2 3 4 6 20 19 45 52 44 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -31. -32. -31. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##