* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 34 32 32 32 32 33 34 35 36 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 34 32 32 32 32 33 34 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 39 40 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 18 17 11 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 242 249 257 266 273 275 234 260 250 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 138 138 140 144 145 147 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 45 46 48 49 47 46 47 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 1 6 13 15 14 17 10 6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -28 -35 -15 -8 -16 -7 18 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 854 774 709 674 691 856 1148 1383 1643 1934 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.6 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.3 151.0 152.6 154.4 156.1 159.9 163.8 167.6 171.2 174.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 13 13 4 6 23 22 49 43 48 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -25. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##