* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 26 24 23 23 24 25 25 26 29 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 26 24 23 23 24 25 25 26 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 26 24 24 24 26 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 15 15 16 9 12 6 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 263 270 276 272 288 294 289 257 253 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 137 137 138 140 143 145 145 146 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 44 46 46 46 44 47 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 6 10 12 9 9 1 4 11 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -21 -14 -14 -22 8 32 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 1 -2 -1 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 640 617 651 728 846 1134 1359 1629 1934 2191 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.0 154.8 156.5 158.4 160.2 164.1 167.9 171.5 175.0 177.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 18 19 19 18 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 4 7 24 19 18 50 45 46 49 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/11/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##