* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052013 08/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 53 57 57 57 56 55 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 47 53 57 57 57 56 55 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 39 42 50 57 61 63 63 65 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 3 2 7 9 9 13 11 8 3 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 356 346 25 86 125 132 181 185 181 181 184 167 198 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 122 119 114 113 114 117 119 124 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 121 119 116 109 107 107 109 112 117 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 73 72 69 67 63 60 53 50 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 56 60 57 51 36 44 46 44 41 29 23 200 MB DIV 67 54 70 58 36 23 15 -18 -22 -16 -23 -12 -17 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -12 -12 -11 -4 -3 0 1 4 0 7 4 LAND (KM) 756 882 1009 1159 1310 1581 1821 2038 2044 1892 1729 1591 1498 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.7 26.9 28.3 29.7 32.2 34.4 36.4 38.5 40.7 43.1 45.4 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 3 8 8 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 23. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 25. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 FIVE 08/15/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 FIVE 08/15/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)