* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 57 58 57 57 56 56 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 57 58 57 57 56 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 57 63 66 67 67 67 70 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 6 6 8 11 14 12 8 6 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 2 2 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 347 6 49 95 110 136 186 187 223 197 265 256 343 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 122 119 116 115 115 116 119 122 125 128 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 119 116 112 109 109 108 111 114 118 122 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 69 67 61 56 51 48 46 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 52 50 52 43 44 67 56 55 41 31 23 200 MB DIV 44 55 43 33 26 20 4 0 -21 -4 -9 -8 -3 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -12 -9 -7 -9 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 905 1047 1192 1342 1493 1753 2015 2052 1923 1772 1645 1516 1402 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.3 28.6 30.0 31.4 33.8 36.2 38.5 40.5 42.6 44.6 47.1 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 5 13 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. 21. 21. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/15/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)