* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 46 46 45 44 43 44 46 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 46 46 45 44 43 44 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 41 44 49 52 53 53 53 54 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 5 8 10 13 15 14 12 11 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 6 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 12 21 122 157 218 189 219 219 247 248 289 248 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 114 113 112 112 112 114 119 122 124 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 109 107 105 105 104 106 110 113 115 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 66 64 62 57 50 47 42 37 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 16 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 37 33 33 31 46 50 55 39 32 11 -7 200 MB DIV 49 43 25 18 27 0 12 -17 -3 -7 4 7 7 700-850 TADV -18 -14 -10 -5 -4 -5 0 2 -2 3 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1181 1317 1454 1582 1709 1940 2155 2104 1968 1856 1816 1731 1535 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.2 33.3 35.4 37.5 39.6 41.6 43.7 45.6 47.9 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 6 5 9 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 9. 11. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)