* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 39 41 44 45 44 45 46 48 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 6 11 15 12 18 17 16 13 17 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 0 5 -1 0 2 3 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 359 30 146 193 210 220 229 248 257 250 263 281 287 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 112 111 111 111 113 116 120 123 125 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 106 105 104 103 104 106 111 114 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 62 60 54 51 46 44 42 40 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 44 33 33 36 32 38 33 39 31 15 2 -17 -21 200 MB DIV 26 19 -1 11 13 0 3 0 0 13 -3 12 0 700-850 TADV -16 -10 -4 -4 -2 1 4 7 5 11 10 7 10 LAND (KM) 1335 1468 1603 1727 1852 2041 2217 2177 2059 1988 1948 1793 1619 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.2 20.6 20.8 21.3 22.2 22.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.4 34.5 36.5 38.3 40.4 42.6 44.9 47.1 49.1 50.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 6 8 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)