* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 32 32 32 32 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 32 32 32 32 32 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 45 47 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 11 14 15 14 20 14 15 15 18 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 -4 0 0 3 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 307 215 197 211 235 214 244 238 250 236 264 252 258 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 112 111 110 112 116 120 123 125 128 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 106 104 103 103 107 110 114 115 117 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 61 58 53 48 47 46 42 40 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 41 38 38 50 43 48 28 15 -7 -33 -46 200 MB DIV 14 0 26 40 15 10 0 -7 6 3 -13 9 0 700-850 TADV -14 -6 -5 -4 -2 2 3 4 9 11 9 7 6 LAND (KM) 1521 1656 1792 1908 2004 2200 2189 2076 1987 1946 1816 1678 1580 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.1 38.1 40.1 42.3 44.5 46.8 49.0 50.7 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 8 19 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)