* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 28 29 30 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 11 15 15 12 18 16 17 18 20 16 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 3 -3 0 0 2 2 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 242 208 225 238 227 235 249 244 245 255 248 252 229 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 111 110 111 114 118 121 125 128 130 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 104 103 103 105 108 112 116 118 118 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 57 55 50 49 48 44 43 39 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 44 44 48 46 49 37 18 0 -28 -46 -47 200 MB DIV -16 9 26 22 25 11 2 -7 10 -17 11 -6 21 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 -2 1 2 4 4 11 11 8 8 2 LAND (KM) 1658 1789 1911 2004 2099 2233 2108 2019 1986 1890 1699 1613 1573 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.3 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.1 37.1 39.1 41.2 43.3 45.8 48.2 50.6 52.0 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 11 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 7 12 18 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED