* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 33 32 31 29 27 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 33 32 31 29 27 26 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 13 16 22 16 21 25 28 27 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 1 -2 2 1 0 0 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 216 226 246 233 230 253 245 251 244 256 237 248 240 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 110 111 112 116 119 123 126 131 133 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 102 103 106 110 114 116 118 119 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 55 55 52 46 42 41 39 38 37 39 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 41 45 45 36 36 1 -11 -44 -63 -59 -30 200 MB DIV 1 14 24 16 14 -7 1 -4 -3 -16 3 8 6 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -3 0 0 3 5 14 14 17 9 7 -2 LAND (KM) 1798 1906 2010 2103 2197 2204 2119 2091 2000 1812 1673 1628 1675 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.5 25.6 27.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.1 36.2 37.2 38.1 40.0 42.2 44.6 47.2 49.5 51.5 53.0 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 13 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 12 10 22 10 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)