* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 40 41 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 16 18 14 15 15 19 20 33 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 2 0 4 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 241 249 221 223 238 261 239 240 247 254 253 249 271 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 112 113 118 123 125 127 131 135 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 102 103 104 109 114 115 117 121 122 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 56 55 54 52 47 44 39 38 34 35 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 10 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 44 49 38 40 50 24 -4 -39 -69 -85 -73 200 MB DIV 7 24 31 26 1 -3 0 10 -15 -5 -15 -1 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 3 3 3 8 8 11 5 1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1911 2011 2112 2201 2231 2129 1994 1927 1861 1686 1530 1446 1447 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.7 21.2 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.2 37.2 38.1 39.0 41.0 43.6 46.0 48.1 50.4 52.7 54.6 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 11 12 11 12 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 8 27 17 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)