* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 29 28 27 25 26 25 23 26 28 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 29 28 27 25 26 25 23 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 33 33 32 33 34 35 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 19 21 10 12 17 18 25 28 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 3 0 1 8 4 2 0 0 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 255 235 228 247 261 261 245 246 258 234 253 256 268 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 112 114 118 121 124 128 132 135 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 101 102 104 109 112 114 117 118 120 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 48 43 41 38 35 31 30 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 12 12 12 11 8 8 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 23 11 13 28 6 -16 -37 -55 -63 -53 -35 200 MB DIV 24 30 23 0 -6 24 -2 -5 -3 -7 -13 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 0 6 9 11 11 18 17 17 14 1 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1916 2003 2091 2182 2273 2200 2105 2070 1902 1756 1674 1635 1676 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.6 23.7 25.0 26.3 27.7 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.2 37.1 38.0 38.9 41.0 43.5 45.9 48.3 50.3 51.9 53.4 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 0 5 11 5 16 12 12 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -9. -10. -12. -9. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED