* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 32 30 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 32 30 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 34 33 32 31 31 33 35 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 20 14 20 18 18 18 26 18 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 2 5 2 3 5 0 -1 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 233 244 254 256 255 252 245 231 234 205 237 239 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 114 116 119 123 126 132 135 136 133 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 102 104 105 110 112 114 118 118 117 113 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 44 45 44 41 38 35 35 40 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 14 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 9 17 21 0 -16 -37 -69 -70 -21 -3 9 200 MB DIV 27 15 0 3 14 -15 2 -9 -9 0 52 -3 9 700-850 TADV 8 11 11 13 10 16 19 15 4 1 -10 -4 0 LAND (KM) 2015 2106 2197 2288 2316 2259 2216 2069 1960 1955 1882 1691 1498 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.7 26.3 28.1 29.9 31.6 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.3 38.2 39.1 40.0 42.2 44.7 46.9 48.7 49.8 50.3 50.6 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 3 6 3 10 8 13 8 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED