* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 25 24 22 22 26 29 31 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 25 24 22 22 26 29 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 34 33 32 31 30 31 32 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 19 17 22 22 26 32 24 21 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 4 3 2 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 242 250 262 263 257 255 245 250 234 246 225 243 230 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 115 117 118 121 125 129 133 137 137 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 105 108 109 111 113 116 118 119 117 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 44 43 40 39 38 36 34 38 44 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 8 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 19 21 13 -10 -22 -58 -85 -40 -16 14 14 200 MB DIV 14 4 -8 5 5 4 -15 -13 -2 15 50 25 8 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 7 8 19 15 15 5 2 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 2107 2203 2299 2290 2252 2228 2142 1992 1890 1836 1866 1745 1579 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.3 39.2 40.4 41.5 43.8 46.0 48.0 49.8 51.3 52.1 52.5 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 2 1 10 13 11 8 16 11 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -11. -13. -13. -9. -6. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)