* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 23 19 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 19 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 22 21 22 23 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 15 17 19 20 24 23 31 25 22 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 3 2 2 -1 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 248 261 262 255 262 259 254 246 253 238 272 281 N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 116 118 119 122 125 129 131 133 137 139 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 106 108 109 112 114 116 117 117 119 119 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 42 43 40 40 36 35 37 43 42 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 37 30 19 -4 -23 -50 -63 -56 -25 -10 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 2 2 7 -1 -2 -18 0 -7 4 2 4 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 9 11 12 13 6 4 0 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 2170 2271 2271 2227 2190 2116 2021 1817 1671 1554 1520 1536 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.3 27.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.9 39.9 41.0 42.1 44.5 46.8 49.1 50.9 52.6 53.7 54.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 3 3 13 1 23 17 14 12 14 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -16. -16. -13. -8. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)