* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 23 20 19 20 20 20 21 24 24 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 20 19 20 20 20 21 24 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 25 25 24 25 25 25 26 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 17 18 17 18 19 25 30 24 29 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 0 -3 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 257 256 249 250 259 249 263 250 263 236 249 244 N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 117 119 120 123 125 127 130 133 136 138 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 107 109 110 112 114 115 117 119 119 119 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 44 40 38 35 32 32 33 38 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 40 26 5 -7 -34 -58 -69 -68 -45 -37 N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 -9 -14 -10 -16 -15 -17 -21 0 10 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 8 10 15 15 18 13 11 -4 -1 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 2265 2226 2177 2126 2079 2003 1921 1786 1622 1485 1412 1398 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.7 24.7 25.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.8 40.8 41.9 42.9 45.0 47.1 49.1 50.9 52.6 53.9 54.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 9 9 3 3 10 14 12 16 13 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -6. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)