* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * UNALA CP022013 08/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 35 37 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 32 34 35 32 27 28 19 11 6 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 1 0 3 -4 -3 -1 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 237 236 242 240 232 226 220 227 216 193 178 309 310 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 149 149 147 147 147 146 143 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 57 57 57 57 54 52 52 52 49 50 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 49 42 39 35 20 23 23 29 41 40 70 200 MB DIV 75 60 29 16 38 27 40 39 48 64 30 -28 -3 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 12 13 15 15 14 10 9 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1965 2081 2200 2327 2457 2715 2947 3133 3301 3430 3520 3581 3642 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 26.8 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 177.8 179.2 180.5 181.9 183.3 186.0 188.4 190.3 192.0 193.3 194.2 194.8 195.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 26 38 33 32 33 31 28 26 21 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 9. 12. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022013 UNALA 08/19/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.7/ -1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022013 UNALA 08/19/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##