* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * UNALA CP022013 08/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 43 V (KT) LAND 35 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 32 31 31 32 33 28 25 16 12 3 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 -2 1 -6 -6 0 4 SHEAR DIR 227 232 230 227 224 216 214 211 181 183 114 346 355 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 149 149 148 147 147 146 145 143 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 55 54 53 53 53 51 48 48 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 49 47 48 34 24 15 25 24 26 25 36 200 MB DIV 59 33 19 35 47 13 17 31 77 21 18 -29 -39 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 6 1 11 5 5 5 4 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2123 2249 2377 2507 2639 2867 3080 3256 3402 3500 3580 3633 3684 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.4 27.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 179.5 180.9 182.3 183.7 185.1 187.5 189.7 191.5 193.0 194.0 194.8 195.3 195.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 15 14 12 11 10 7 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 40 36 32 32 32 31 28 25 20 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -17. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022013 UNALA 08/19/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022013 UNALA 08/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##