* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP032013 08/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 33 32 31 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 23 23 25 24 22 22 20 20 25 27 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 2 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 271 278 281 282 284 298 310 326 335 328 322 326 N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 147 147 145 144 143 144 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 66 63 59 57 54 52 54 55 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 7 4 -5 -11 -11 -2 -33 -19 -13 0 N/A 200 MB DIV 25 48 51 27 14 29 22 7 -16 -4 0 39 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 1 2 4 3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 1624 1716 1813 1911 2010 2197 2326 2428 2479 2505 2537 2523 2498 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.3 20.9 20.2 19.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 174.8 175.9 177.0 178.1 179.1 181.0 182.3 183.3 183.8 184.0 184.2 183.9 183.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 5 4 2 3 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 28 30 32 34 32 31 31 33 34 34 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032013 INVEST 08/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032013 INVEST 08/19/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING