* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032013 08/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 39 40 39 36 33 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 23 22 22 18 16 20 22 27 29 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 1 0 2 3 5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 271 276 289 300 307 329 335 328 340 341 351 336 327 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 147 146 144 143 142 143 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 61 59 54 52 50 47 48 51 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 -4 -5 -2 3 24 43 36 10 13 10 -3 200 MB DIV 25 31 36 59 63 24 -6 0 3 8 2 0 -20 700-850 TADV 3 7 7 3 3 3 2 4 5 5 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1998 2102 2208 2300 2392 2548 2646 2704 2722 2640 2593 2558 2541 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.1 22.4 21.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 178.8 179.9 181.0 182.0 182.9 184.5 185.5 186.1 186.3 185.5 185.0 184.6 184.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 33 32 31 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032013 THREE 08/20/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032013 THREE 08/20/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##