* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 37 45 49 46 38 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 37 45 49 46 38 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 35 31 26 20 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 7 3 3 2 4 12 12 16 13 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 23 353 358 3 52 110 160 192 169 187 154 188 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 27.6 26.1 23.8 21.7 20.6 20.2 19.6 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 155 150 139 124 100 78 65 60 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 71 72 69 67 61 55 45 39 34 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 20 19 21 23 23 21 19 14 10 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 33 36 37 65 67 81 69 73 38 37 9 200 MB DIV 65 78 69 46 43 109 87 106 65 43 -1 15 9 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -4 -8 -5 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 674 629 586 532 486 447 400 332 310 246 244 266 285 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 17 17 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 16. 15. 12. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 3. -4. -10. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 7. 15. 19. 16. 8. -5. -17. -29. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##