* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 37 40 42 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 37 40 42 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 34 31 26 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 5 7 7 4 9 10 14 17 12 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -4 -3 0 -4 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 25 4 16 44 94 158 174 186 191 184 175 168 330 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.1 26.6 24.4 22.4 20.9 20.2 19.9 19.9 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 149 144 129 106 85 69 60 56 56 58 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 71 67 63 55 47 38 34 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 19 21 20 21 19 14 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 38 42 61 74 81 73 77 42 18 26 31 200 MB DIV 43 45 41 55 82 85 93 61 35 0 8 4 5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -4 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 631 590 553 513 485 454 383 359 267 223 239 239 218 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.8 21.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.2 112.5 112.9 113.3 114.2 115.2 115.8 116.4 116.9 117.3 117.3 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 14 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -6. -12. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 6. -7. -22. -33. -40. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##