* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 38 43 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 38 43 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 32 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 6 2 10 13 11 17 13 15 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 1 2 0 2 -1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 25 60 79 151 168 148 184 183 170 157 160 215 205 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.0 25.1 22.9 21.2 19.7 19.2 19.1 19.2 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 146 140 133 113 90 72 59 58 57 56 57 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 68 65 61 54 46 39 32 31 31 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 21 19 16 11 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 54 59 66 76 67 65 33 15 11 10 0 200 MB DIV 55 56 90 105 77 104 81 43 34 12 25 19 13 700-850 TADV -9 -3 0 0 -6 0 -1 0 0 0 0 6 8 LAND (KM) 588 553 524 489 463 356 314 252 148 137 191 220 216 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.8 27.8 28.3 28.2 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.1 113.4 113.7 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.7 116.0 116.4 116.9 117.2 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -1. -8. -14. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 13. 7. -3. -19. -35. -47. -53. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##