* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 6 5 6 9 8 15 11 11 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 2 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 48 80 106 95 101 142 158 157 162 104 117 138 170 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.4 24.2 21.8 20.5 19.7 19.3 19.1 18.8 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 145 137 127 104 79 64 58 57 57 58 57 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 67 66 61 53 44 36 34 35 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 20 20 20 20 17 12 9 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 54 64 71 65 79 57 62 20 21 3 2 -13 200 MB DIV 51 96 126 95 94 88 29 33 16 10 6 14 0 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -8 -4 1 0 0 0 -1 2 0 8 LAND (KM) 548 494 448 410 380 270 253 166 119 88 91 116 132 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.5 23.1 24.8 26.0 26.8 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.7 112.9 113.2 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.3 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.1 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -12. -18. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. -1. -16. -28. -42. -50. -56. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##