* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 44 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 44 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 41 40 36 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 3 6 4 9 9 3 4 3 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 0 -2 -5 0 2 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 109 73 102 177 160 177 173 107 100 105 171 170 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.0 25.9 23.9 21.7 20.3 19.5 18.9 19.0 19.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 144 134 122 101 77 61 57 58 58 59 69 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 69 68 62 53 46 39 36 37 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 20 21 21 19 15 9 5 2 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 65 65 69 71 66 52 32 11 11 9 13 -5 200 MB DIV 92 124 89 84 100 46 7 28 9 21 20 9 5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -8 0 10 0 1 0 3 4 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 451 382 319 276 236 106 97 44 49 14 87 32 -12 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 24.3 26.0 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 111.9 112.0 112.3 112.6 113.2 114.1 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.4 115.6 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 7 3 2 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -7. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 0. -16. -30. -42. -49. -54. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/23/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##