* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 45 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 45 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 42 36 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 5 10 8 9 5 8 3 6 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 2 4 6 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 249 218 185 213 218 190 180 167 141 185 234 266 SST (C) 26.8 25.9 25.2 24.0 22.8 20.8 19.7 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 122 115 103 90 68 58 59 57 57 58 58 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 64 61 54 48 38 34 36 44 52 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 15 10 5 4 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 75 74 61 43 31 14 10 7 22 -1 -18 200 MB DIV 103 78 83 107 61 14 27 7 17 20 21 -2 -5 700-850 TADV -7 4 10 5 2 1 0 0 3 2 7 5 -1 LAND (KM) 288 236 171 112 144 75 42 59 146 146 62 9 -2 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.2 25.1 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.8 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.6 112.7 113.2 113.7 114.5 114.8 115.6 116.7 116.7 115.6 115.1 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 9 6 4 6 3 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -14. -19. -20. -21. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -22. -22. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 5. -4. -20. -36. -48. -56. -62. -64. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##