* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 37 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 37 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 35 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 10 8 11 5 2 1 4 7 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 6 9 4 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 227 196 180 205 239 170 188 93 136 177 191 194 207 SST (C) 26.0 24.9 23.8 22.6 21.4 19.9 19.5 19.2 19.3 19.1 18.8 18.0 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 112 100 88 75 58 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 3 4 2 4 2 4 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 59 57 48 43 36 35 35 35 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 19 18 14 9 6 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 79 80 60 48 38 19 18 17 13 -9 -20 -30 200 MB DIV 59 90 102 55 6 12 13 16 25 1 10 2 17 700-850 TADV 1 10 7 2 3 -3 0 0 0 1 0 1 6 LAND (KM) 319 248 195 204 201 119 106 108 167 197 226 334 281 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.9 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.3 115.6 116.0 116.7 117.1 117.9 119.6 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 4 2 3 3 4 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. -25. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -16. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -3. -7. -22. -38. -54. -65. -68. -72. -76. -81. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##