* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 8 12 11 2 2 4 4 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 8 5 4 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 189 189 211 238 236 193 187 226 110 127 139 161 173 SST (C) 24.9 23.7 22.5 21.5 20.8 19.9 20.0 19.6 19.4 18.9 18.8 18.7 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 99 86 76 68 57 56 57 57 58 59 59 60 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 67 63 60 57 51 42 36 34 34 35 39 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 18 16 13 8 6 4 3 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 61 46 50 35 29 27 18 3 0 -11 -34 200 MB DIV 74 89 37 5 -4 12 3 9 5 -2 -2 10 0 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 3 5 1 0 4 2 4 5 0 5 LAND (KM) 299 256 248 251 217 172 185 148 135 122 118 161 39 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.9 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.4 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.1 116.3 116.2 116.3 116.2 116.4 117.6 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 2 1 2 3 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -16. -20. -24. -23. -23. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -22. -23. -24. -26. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -30. -47. -59. -69. -75. -80. -82. -85. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##