* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 7 9 9 5 4 2 2 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 0 3 6 5 4 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 202 218 239 223 185 220 234 356 124 108 168 239 205 SST (C) 24.1 23.0 21.9 21.2 20.6 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.9 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 91 79 72 65 57 56 56 57 57 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 52 47 41 35 34 33 36 37 39 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 16 14 10 7 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 62 52 56 47 28 31 26 26 20 9 -7 -5 200 MB DIV 80 35 13 13 18 12 3 3 -1 0 11 4 -11 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 3 -1 3 2 4 3 2 6 8 3 LAND (KM) 262 246 262 224 187 158 154 151 177 180 227 351 283 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.3 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.6 114.9 115.2 115.5 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.4 116.7 117.3 118.9 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 5 2 1 1 2 3 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -21. -19. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -20. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -17. -33. -45. -56. -63. -67. -71. -72. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##