* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 10 12 11 5 1 5 7 12 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 3 3 0 6 4 3 -1 1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 224 232 213 175 185 203 245 247 207 215 227 236 297 SST (C) 22.9 22.0 21.1 20.6 20.2 19.8 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.4 19.0 18.9 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 90 81 71 65 60 57 59 58 57 57 59 59 60 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 48 46 36 33 34 36 42 45 46 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 15 13 9 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 58 59 48 42 30 26 21 17 15 -4 2 -29 200 MB DIV 38 31 35 23 8 3 10 3 8 14 37 28 12 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 0 2 2 8 4 6 6 5 4 -12 LAND (KM) 249 257 209 182 163 163 214 200 177 127 108 178 43 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.8 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.4 115.6 116.1 116.5 116.4 116.3 116.1 116.1 117.2 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -24. -23. -21. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -21. -39. -51. -58. -65. -66. -69. -71. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##