* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 11 11 7 1 9 7 24 14 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 1 5 6 0 0 -7 0 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 225 176 183 219 221 338 176 194 190 251 336 N/A SST (C) 21.9 21.0 20.3 20.0 19.7 19.9 20.5 20.8 21.5 21.5 21.1 21.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 71 62 58 57 57 62 65 73 74 69 79 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 48 45 42 35 33 31 35 35 43 63 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 12 9 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 51 44 28 27 27 21 -6 35 38 82 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 37 24 3 0 15 -1 3 24 28 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 3 4 1 2 2 6 9 11 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 262 213 170 161 142 177 231 270 333 415 408 357 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.0 25.9 25.2 25.2 25.6 24.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.3 115.6 115.8 115.9 116.4 116.2 116.7 116.8 118.0 118.3 116.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -20. -22. -23. -20. -18. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -22. -38. -51. -60. -66. -71. -74. -75. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##