* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062013 08/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 56 61 61 60 59 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 4 1 4 8 17 29 28 28 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 -1 2 3 6 8 4 5 2 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 249 237 289 338 342 297 298 330 4 32 59 66 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 163 163 163 164 163 163 160 158 154 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 150 150 149 148 147 143 141 138 137 133 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 78 77 74 75 71 63 53 44 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 60 54 56 44 31 2 -7 -21 -44 -33 -25 N/A 200 MB DIV 71 75 70 72 61 36 49 33 20 4 -2 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -6 -6 0 -3 6 6 4 1 -1 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 78 46 -7 -37 -67 -166 -287 -382 -387 -414 -447 -437 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 52 57 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 31. 31. 30. 29. 30. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062013 SIX 08/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062013 SIX 08/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062013 SIX 08/25/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)