* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL062013 08/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 62 65 71 73 74 72 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 6 6 7 6 22 27 31 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -1 2 6 6 6 1 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 279 338 3 312 344 315 352 7 35 50 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 165 164 166 163 160 158 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 149 150 151 149 147 143 139 138 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 12 9 13 9 13 9 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 77 74 74 72 63 55 49 43 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 49 51 44 40 16 0 -14 -60 -46 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 57 57 59 63 41 28 1 -24 -1 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -3 1 3 6 5 6 2 1 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 -19 -60 -103 -146 -201 -305 -319 -326 -364 -397 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.4 97.0 97.7 98.4 99.6 100.8 101.0 101.0 101.4 101.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 50 52 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 20. 26. 28. 29. 27. 23. 21. 21. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)