* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL062013 08/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 59 62 65 67 66 65 62 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 6 5 4 13 28 31 27 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 2 5 8 7 7 4 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 3 20 356 2 349 334 356 11 50 71 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 163 165 164 165 163 161 160 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 148 148 150 148 146 142 140 140 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 12 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 76 75 73 67 61 54 46 45 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 34 28 12 6 10 -26 -41 -46 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 51 54 55 33 40 19 17 2 1 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 1 7 8 5 4 1 0 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -47 -80 -122 -165 -249 -362 -371 -357 -384 -403 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.1 97.6 98.3 98.9 100.2 101.4 101.5 101.3 101.6 101.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 7 4 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 53 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 21. 20. 17. 18. 19. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED