* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL062013 08/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 21 21 26 30 34 38 44 50 56 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 7 9 14 26 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 8 8 9 10 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 360 347 333 337 342 356 10 54 53 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 169 169 168 168 165 162 157 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 153 151 153 149 147 144 142 136 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 77 75 70 64 56 48 47 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 17 17 15 2 -9 -28 -56 -26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 75 53 44 39 31 26 19 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 4 6 10 4 6 1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -117 -162 -202 -233 -272 -364 -338 -316 -323 -323 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.9 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.4 101.2 100.9 101.0 100.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -7. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. 1. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)