* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP102013 08/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 42 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 10 12 12 11 9 6 3 3 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 1 1 -1 4 -2 2 0 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 30 49 39 34 24 47 35 43 36 90 158 203 N/A SST (C) 30.5 29.7 28.4 26.6 24.6 21.1 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.1 20.4 20.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 164 150 131 110 73 73 71 67 62 64 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 75 75 74 70 66 59 51 42 37 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 55 44 33 42 32 38 22 22 7 -15 -16 N/A 200 MB DIV 54 58 37 34 28 21 -2 2 -9 5 9 12 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 11 5 15 13 14 6 N/A LAND (KM) 255 111 29 46 64 169 283 443 586 743 781 813 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 13 12 10 10 9 10 9 7 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 1 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 20 CX,CY: -12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -36. -43. -47. -49. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102013 JULIETTE 08/28/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102013 JULIETTE 08/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##